Yemen conflict escalating into regional war

6 Oct, 2026 13:18 / Updated 6 hours ago
The Saudi-backed government has kicked off a major offensive on Houthis, with battles raging around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have launched a major offensive against the Iranian-backed Houthis, with both sides claiming territorial gains as battles rage around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

The escalation comes after the Houthis took over the key territory around Bab el-Mandeb in September, one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints, which has gained particular significance amid disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran war.

On Monday, the Yemeni army claimed to have pushed north along the Red Sea coast toward Mocha, while announcing “a strategic offensive operation on Sanaa,” which serves as the de facto capital of the Houthi movement.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, agreed with Türkiye and Pakistan to rapidly deploy military forces under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, also known as the “Muslim NATO.” The coalition already announced that 100 warplanes are supporting the Yemeni offensive.

The Houthis have denied the government gains, claiming to have made headway around Taiz, some 80km from the Red Sea coast. The group has also retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones against Saudi targets, claiming strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, military bases, and Aramco oil facilities, including the Rabigh refinery. Saudi Arabia has confirmed damage from Houthi attacks on airports at Jizan and Najran.

The Houthis have consistently accused Riyadh of waging an “aggression” and blockade against Yemen, arguing that Saudi military operations serve US and Israeli interests. Their Yemeni opponents, meanwhile, view Houthis – who identify themselves as part of the “Axis of Resistance” – as “terrorists” and insurgents who overthrew the internationally recognized government in 2014.

The conflict in Yemen in its current form began when the Houthis seized the capital of Sanaa more than a decade ago, prompting a Saudi-led military intervention. However, fighting largely subsided after a 2022 truce.

Amid the fighting in Yemen and continued US-Iran standoff, US President Donald Trump argued that record gas prices are being driven not by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz but by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

06 October 2026

The proposed Mecca Defense Alliance remains “in limbo” and is not yet ready to function as a full-fledged military bloc, Batman University assistant professor Dünya Başol told RT.

Başol said the pact has not been ratified, lacks a common command structure and has yet to clearly define the boundaries between collective defense, deterrence, counter-strikes and offensive warfare.

Başol nevertheless said Ankara could move quickly once the agreement is ratified, potentially within weeks. Before any troop deployment, Türkiye could send Saudi Arabia anti-drone weapons, air-defense systems and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities under bilateral arrangements, he said.

However, Turkish personnel or air-defense systems deployed in Saudi Arabia or Yemen could become Houthi targets, Başol warned.

“But I don’t assume the Turkish soil will be the case of an attack. That will change everything because then as a part of NATO, then that may trigger Article 5,” he said.

Yemeni government forces have released a series of videos showing new attacks on Houthi positions in Marib and Taiz.

One clip shows Saudi-backed troops exchanging fire from a mountaintop in Jabal Habashi, Taiz, while separate footage purportedly shows drones striking Houthi gatherings and fortifications on the western Taiz front.

Another video shows artillery targeting a military vehicle on Marib’s southern front, which then erupts in flames.

The army also said it destroyed a 23mm machine gun at what it described as one of the Houthis’ key positions in Marib.

The British Embassy in Saudi Arabia has urged UK nationals to remain alert, warning that the kingdom continues to face “missile and drone attacks, targeting cities, airports, military sites and energy infrastructure.”

Britons were advised to follow official travel alerts and local authorities’ instructions, identify nearby shelters, and refrain from filming, publishing or sharing information related to the aftermath of Houthi attacks.

At least six civilians have been killed and four wounded in attacks attributed to Ansar Allah across the southern Taiz governorate, Al Jazeera has reported, citing Yemen’s Aden-based Interior Ministry.

A major fire has reportedly broken out at an Aramco oil facility in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following an apparent long-range strike by the Houthi militants. Unverified footage circulating online shows open flames and a large plume of black smoke emitting from the damaged installation.

Pakistan will go “to any ends” to support Saudi Arabia if the kingdom requires assistance, London Dialogue researcher Muhammad Sarmad Zia has told RT.

Pakistani troops are already stationed in Saudi Arabia, he said, arguing that the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish defense pact could lead to further Pakistani involvement as the confrontation with the Houthis escalates.

The Houthis have enough weapons to sustain their fight indefinitely and have kept separate arsenals for domestic, regional and wider conflicts, senior Ansar Allah spokesman Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has told RT.

“Yemen has enough supplies to keep fighting forever,” Bukhaiti said, claiming the group’s domestic weapons production allows it to adapt its arsenal to counter Saudi defense systems.

The Houthis are estimated to have around 350,000 fighters, while estimates for forces aligned with Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council range from 40,000 to 250,000.

Watch the full report by RT correspondent Oumaima Ichchar below.

Yemen TV has published footage purportedly showing a drone strike by Saudi-backed Nation’s Shield forces on Houthi positions.

The strike killed and wounded a number of Houthi fighters, according to the broadcaster.

More than 184,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Yemen since the start of August, most of them since early September, according to the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM).

“More and more people are thrown into an appalling cycle of displacement,” IOM Director General Amy Pope has said.

Al Arabiya has published footage attributed to the Yemeni Armed Forces purportedly showing strikes on Houthi movements, supply lines, and military positions.

Saudi forces have carried out 66 air and missile strikes across six Yemeni provinces over the past 24 hours, the Houthi military spokesman has claimed, as reported by Al-Masirah TV.

Six members of the same family, including four children aged between three and eight, have been killed in a Saudi airstrike in Yemen’s northwestern Hajjah Province, according to the Houthi-run Health Ministry.

The strike hit their home in the village of Umm al-Dahi in Haradh district, Yemen Press Agency has reported, citing the ministry. A six-year-old girl was also critically wounded.

A separate airstrike in Taiz Province reportedly injured a child and two adults.

Saudi Arabia’s cabinet has backed an “immediate” move toward implementing mutual-defense commitments under the Mecca Alliance, according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

The cabinet said the agreement was aimed at strengthening military readiness and coordination in response to recent attacks on the kingdom.

Restoring state authority is “inseparable” from securing international shipping through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, Yemeni Prime Minister Shaya Mohsen al-Zindani has said, according to news agency Saba.

The government is prepared to follow up advances made during the ‘Dawn of Yemen’ offensive by restoring security and public services in areas brought under its control, the PM added.

The Houthis have repelled a new attempt by Saudi-backed forces to “advance” toward the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree has claimed, according to the group’s Al-Masirah TV.

Saree reportedly said the advancing forces were pushed back without making any gains and were targeted with ten ballistic missiles.

The operation killed or wounded dozens of troops and destroyed a large number of military vehicles, he claimed.

The Houthis have released dramatic footage purportedly showing a series of FPV drone strikes on Saudi-backed forces across several fronts in Yemen.

The video, published by Ansar Allah’s military media, shows drones striking vehicles, surveillance equipment, and military positions.

The Houthis are likely to retain control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite the Yemeni government’s counteroffensive, former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter told RT’s Sanchez Effect.

Ritter described the fighting as “some back and forth,” but argued that government forces will have to be redeployed as the front lines solidify. “I think you’re going to see that the Strait will continue to be in firm control of Ansar Allah,” he said, referring to the Houthi group.

He also argued that the group’s use of FPV drones gives it an effective counter to Saudi air power, allowing repeated attacks on supply lines supporting government forces. “This counteroffensive will fail,” Ritter predicted.

Control of Bab el-Mandeb could also give the Houthis significant leverage over international shipping, he said, arguing that even the threat of attacks could make shipowners and insurers reluctant to use the strategic route.

A Houthi ballistic missile targeting the southwestern Saudi city of Khamis Mushait has been intercepted and destroyed, the Saudi-led coalition’s spokesman, Major-General Turki al-Malki, has said, according to Al Jazeera.

The commander of the Yemeni government’s 35th Armored Brigade, Abdulrahman al-Shamsani, has reportedly been killed during fighting in Taiz province, Houthi-run Saba News has said, citing a military source.

Here are the key developments so far as fighting in Yemen intensifies:

  • Mounting losses: More than 270 Yemeni government troops and Houthi fighters were killed over the past 24 hours, sources on both sides told AFP.

  • Competing territorial claims: Government forces say they have recaptured Mocha and secured Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis deny those gains, saying they repelled the coastal advance and seized ground around Taiz.

  • Saudi airports hit: Saudi authorities confirmed Monday’s attacks on Jazan and Najran, reporting damage and three injuries. The Houthis have also claimed strikes on other Saudi airports.

  • Missile sites targeted: The Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed a Houthi missile launcher in Sanaa and a depot containing 20 missiles in Saada.

  • Mecca pact activated: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan agreed to implement their collective-defense commitments and rapidly deploy forces and military capabilities to the kingdom. Deployment details remain unclear.

  • Mass air campaign: The Saudi-led coalition said that 100 warplanes were supporting the offensive against the Houthis.

  • Houthi warnings: Senior official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told RT that foreign forces joining Riyadh would face a response. He warned of attacks on more Saudi airports and urged Aramco workers to stay away from oil facilities.

  • Pipeline disruption: Following reports that another attack had halted Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, Riyadh said on Tuesday that it was operational. The route allows oil exports to bypass Hormuz.

  • Aramco alarm: Aramco’s chief warned Monday that the global oil supply cushion was “scarily thin,” with much of the remaining stockpile difficult to access and rebuilding reserves potentially taking years.

  • $200 oil warning: Vitol CEO Russell Hardy warned that renewed disruption to Middle Eastern shipments could send oil to $200 a barrel. Tanker shortages and depleted Western stocks are adding pressure.

  • Trump blames Ukraine: Trump has blamed soaring US diesel prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, rejecting the suggestion that the unprovoked US-Israeli war on Iran is responsible.

The Arab League has condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan and Najran airports, saying they endangered passengers and staff and constituted “a flagrant violation of Saudi Arabia’s sovereignty.”

In a statement shared on X, the 22-member bloc warned that continued escalation threatens neighboring countries and international waterways, while reaffirming support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

Oil could reach $200 a barrel if Middle Eastern shipments are disrupted again, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy has warned.

The world’s largest independent oil trader’s chief said increased Gulf exports after months of disruption from the US-Israeli war on Iran were preventing a price surge. However, tankers transferring cargoes outside Hormuz face lengthy waits, reducing vessel availability and raising costs.

Western stockpiles cushioning the shortfall have also been depleted, he warned, with fuel supplies likely to remain tight into winter.

The G7 and its partners have announced a release of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves.

What is the ‘Muslim NATO’ Mecca defense pact?

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed in August, links Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan under a collective-defense pledge, which treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all. It has been widely dubbed “Muslim NATO” for its similarity to the Western military bloc’s Article 5.

On Monday, the three countries agreed to implement collective-defense measures and arrange the rapid deployment of military forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia following Houthi attacks.

However, deployments remain subject to national laws and agreed arrangements. No troop numbers or timetable were announced, and the decision does not confirm Turkish or Pakistani participation in fighting inside Yemen.

Pakistan is “fully on board” with military support for Saudi Arabia and has taken Houthi warnings seriously, veteran Pakistani newspaper editor Kaswar Klasra told RT, pointing to repeated visits by Pakistan’s military chief to Riyadh and Istanbul and Islamabad’s pledge to defend the kingdom.

“The Saudi conflict is not only between Saudi Arabia and Houthis,” Klasra said, arguing that the Mecca pact makes Pakistan a party to the confrontation and also involves Türkiye.

Yemen has become “a kind of Vietnam for Saudi Arabia,” political scientist Dr. Mehmet Rakipoglu told RT, arguing that Riyadh has failed to defeat the Houthis despite a decade of military involvement.

He cautioned that activating the Mecca defense pact does not mean automatic deployment, stressing that Türkiye and Pakistan have agreed to send forces to Saudi Arabia, rather than Yemen.

Rakipoglu described Ankara’s approach as “strategic patience,” arguing that it wants to determine the timing and form of any confrontation on its own terms.

Videos shared by the Houthis purportedly show ballistic strikes against vehicles used by Saudi-backed armed groups in Ras Al-Arah in southern Yemen.

More than 270 Yemeni government troops and Iran-backed Houthi fighters have been killed over the past 24 hours as hostilities escalate, sources on both sides told AFP on Tuesday.

The outlet reported, citing anonymous government officials, that Yemen’s forces lost 115 troops, with dozens more wounded in fighting, as well as Houthi missile and drone attacks.

Senior Houthi political official and spokesperson Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has denied Yemeni government claims of recapturing Mocha and securing Bab el-Mandeb.

He told RT that opposing forces briefly advanced near Dhubab airport, north of the strait, but were subsequently driven back.

“The enemy never reached the Bab el-Mandeb area,” he said, adding that government forces had not entered Mocha either. He argued that the offensive would prompt the Houthis to expand their control around the strait to establish a buffer zone.

Pakistan and Türkiye should stay out of the conflict or face a Houthi response, senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has told RT following the activation of Islamabad and Ankara’s collective-defense commitments with Saudi Arabia.

“We will be forced to defend ourselves against any participation from any other country, whether Islamic or non-Islamic, Arab or non-Arab,” he said, urging both governments to reconsider and arguing that foreign involvement would not shift the military balance in Riyadh’s favor.

The Houthis will “meet escalation with escalation” and could expand attacks to more Saudi airports, al-Bukhaiti has told RT.

“The door to escalation remains open to target other airports,” he said, urging international airlines to heed warnings for their safety.

He also warned employees of Saudi state oil giant Aramco to stay away from the company’s facilities.